Wednesday, February 11, 2009

The Rays' 25 and 40 Man Roster Predictions

First, the predicted opening day 25-man roster:

Starters:
Catcher: Dioner Navarro
First Baseman: Carlos Pena
Second Baseman: Akinori Iwamura
Third Baseman: Evan Longoria
Short Stop: Jason Bartlett
Left Field: Carl Crawford
Center Field: Bossman Junior Upton
Right Field: Matt Joyce
Designated Hitter: Pat Burrell

Reserves:
Catcher: Shawn Riggans
Utility: Willy Aybar
Utility: Ben Zobrist
OF: Gabe Kapler
OF: Gabe Gross

Starting Pitching:
Scott Kazmir
James Shields
Matt Garza
Andy Sonnanstine
Jason Hammel

Relief Pitching:
Jeff Niemann
Brian Shouse
Grant Balfour
J.P. Howell
Dan Wheeler
Derek Rodriguez

Additional to make up the 40-man roster:

SP David Price
OF Justin Ruggiano
SS Reid Brignac
OF Fernando Perez
RP Juan Salas
CP Troy Percival
RP Chad Bradford
RP Joe Nelson
RP Lance Cormier
2B Eliot Johnson
C John Jaso
SP Wade Davis
SP James Houser
SP Jacob McGee
SP Mitch Talbot

These predictions - especially that of the opening day 25-man roster - are based on a few assumptions that have been written about in previous posts - most notably, the fact that Derek Rodriguez needs to be placed on the 25-man roster to secure their spot on the Rays' 40-man roster as a whole. This is also the reason why I have David Price beginning the season at AAA-Durham which (this link) also explains the reasoning behind Hammel and Niemann being on the 25-man roster (and to an extent Gabe Gross, more to follow below).

As for Percival and Bradford I feel they will both start the season on the DL. Bradford certainly will be on the DL, and I feel, for management reasons, at the very least, Percival will find himself in that same boat due to the roster constraints previously remarked upon.

As for Joe Nelson and Lance Cormier, I feel they will not make the 25-man roster for reasons stated in the previous posts in the links above. I believe Joe Nelson will be a consistent contributor to the Rays this season, but as far as the opening day roster, I don't think he will make it, again, I feel this will be a management decision more so than a baseball decision. If Nelson does begin the season on the opening day roster, it might spell the end of either Hammel, Niemann, or Rodriguez as a Tampa Bay Ray - either that, or it means the pitching staff has suffered another injury during the spring.

I think most of the rest speak for themselves. I think one of the following of Gabe Gross, Matt Joyce, or Gabe Kapler could find themselves beginning on the 40-man roster but not the 25-man roster, which could lead to the end of Gross as a Tampa Bay Ray, as well. As I noted in the previous post surrounding David Price (link above), Gabe Gross is also out of options, and thus, could find his way on the opening day roster as well to ensure his security as a Ray; with that being said, Fernando Perez can easily find his way onto the 25-man roster in place of any one of the other 3-right fielders, but as I have written previously, I believe Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler will platoon the right field duties eventually, leaving Gabe Gross as the odd man out.

Of course, this is all my speculation, but I think, as of right now, this is what I would look to begin the season with. Obviously, over the course of 162 games, things can and will change mightily, which is why having the extra arms and bats that can find themselves claimed by other teams on the 25-man roster makes the most sense, and so for now, I will stand by this roster.

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