Price Back to AAA Durham

David Price was sent back to AAA Durham yesterday, in a move that many expected - including Price himself. Price said he felt all along that he would be heading back to Durham no matter what he accomplished this spring, and the Rays organization finalized that sentiment on Wednesday saying the left-handed phenom was optioned back to Durham so his development could be better monitored.

It makes sense in many respects as to why Price, 23, is better suited to begin this season in the minors. No one doubts his potential, but there are a few lingering doubts when it comes to Price's personal developments:

For starters, the Rays would like Price to hone his change-up (which he was able to successful begin the process of this spring), show better command of his fastball, and work on his pitch efficiency, all in attempts to get him to pitch deeper into games.

Secondly, and most tellingly, David Price has maxed out in the course of his young life with 133 innings pitched - that total having been tallied while he was at Vanderbilt. He did throw 139 1/3 innings last season combined in the minors, majors, and playoffs, but that number is still a far cry from what is expected from a full time starter in the major leagues over the course of a full season (and dare we say, the playoffs, too?). The Rays are not yet ready to put that stress on Price's young arm.

"(We) went through it for the last two or three weeks at length and ultimately decided that - all things considered - this was the right move for David and, in turn, the organization," Andrew Friedman, Rays executive vice president of baseball operations, said.

Another reason as to why it makes sense for Price to begin at the minor league level is because Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel, who are both out of options, become the leading candidates for the fifth rotation spot. Of course, being out of options means that if either Hammel or Niemann are optioned to triple A, that another club can claim that player - thus, on the business side of the ball, the Rays would do better to not send at least one of these players to the minors.

If you are a David Price fan, do not fret. Remember only one year ago when another young player was sent to Durham after Spring Training? That player, all he did, was get called up a month into the season, sign a mega contract only days later, and become the rookie of the year.

The baseball season is a long one. Many things can change through the course of the season for Price. Expect him to make an appearance in the majors within a month - and expect him to put himself in for serious consideration for the AL Rookie of the Year - just as Evan Longoria did last season.

It wasn't that long ago where the Rays made a similar spring decision - lest we forget - Price will be back, and he'll be better, and more mature, than ever.

Derek Rodriguez Back to the Sox

Derek Rodriguez, the Rule 5 Draft pick previously discussed here has been offered back to the White Sox, and they have accepted him - paying the Rays $25,000, or half the original fee the Rays paid to the Sox when the acquired him.

Apparently, the Rays just didn't have the roster space to retain Rodriguez' services. The deal will have little to no impact on the Rays' season.

Big Free Agents Signings - and What to Expect

Okay, we've all been through the big free agent signings before with the Rays - and historically, especially early in the history of the Rays, those signings rarely paid dividends.

Wilson Alvarez - 5 year $35 million contract, and all he did was compile a 17-26 record with a 3-year ERA of 4.62 - hardly worthy of $7 million per season.
Greg Vaughn - 4 years $34 million contract, and in his three season of work - compiled a batting average of .226, hitting 60 home runs, and knocking in only 185 runs. Hardly worth the $8.5 million per season.
Jose Canseco - signed a one year deal worth $2 million - but didn't even last that one season before being traded to the dreaded Yankees - he hit .257 with 9 home runs and 30 RBI's in 61 games that season.
Paul Sorrento - signed a 2 year 5.25 million contract with an option for a third year at $3 million - he never stood a chance for that option to be picked up. In the two seasons, he batted .229 with 28 home runs and 99 RBI's ... hardly the pop the Rays had hoped for in the signing.
Juan Guzman - signed a 2-year contract worth a guaranteed $12.5 million - he pitched exactly 1 2/3 innings with the club.

This doesn't even include such blockbuster trades as the acquisition of the likes of Vinny Castillo, but that argument is neither here nor there, for this post's sake.

The point is, in the past, the Rays have tried. They have put big money out there for big names in attempts to reap big rewards, but that just hasn't been the case. So, what can we expect this season, after multiple free agent signings? Are any of those signings going to be huge busts like the above? Let's hope not - but in all honesty, only one can actually nab the tag of "bust" anyway, but we can still hope for the best. Today, I will attempt to shed some light on the free agent acquisitions of this past offseason and predict how I believe each can fare in their new uniform.

We'll start with the obvious acquisition that could potentially feel the most pressure - Pat Burrell signed a 2 year $16 million dollar deal. He is 32 now (will be 33 on October 10th) and has a career batting average of .257 (he hit .250 last season) but for his career he has averaged nearly 28 home runs per season - not too shabby from what would likely be the Rays' DH this year, and Burrell also will walk - or in other words, force the pitcher to work against him. Since Burrell will not be asked to bat clean-up for the Rays, I believe he will work well on this team, and hit near or above his career average for home runs. He may be on the cusp of actually being worth the $8 million per year, but I think he will prove to be a major contributor for the Rays - and an upgrade from the DH position over that of season's past.

The only other position player they added this year via free agency is Gabe Kapler (they traded for Joyce) who is set to earn just a notch above $1 million for 1 season. Kapler is 33 (will be 34 on August 31st) and has a career batting average of .273 (he hit .301 last season). Kapler is expected to fill in spot duty in right field, and could potentially fill in the duties on limited basis in left. He will bat toward the bottom of the order, when he bats, but he provides a good contact hitting pinch hitter - having only struck out an average of 41 times per year for his career. He will be worth the $1 million dollar price tag - simply because, baseball salaries are absurd, and a million for a bench player seems more the norm than ever.

As for the pitchers:

The Rays signed Joe Nelson to a one-year $1.3 million contract. Nelson is expected to fill the middle relief innings - in order to get the game to the likes of Balfour, Howell, Wheeler, and, if healthy, Percival. Nelson is 34 (he will be 35 on October 25th) and has spent considerable amount of time in the minors in his career (only having 4 seasons of major league experience - of which only 2 are full seasons). Nelson's career ERA is 4.09 (2.00 last season) with a record of 4-2 (3-1 last season). I would not be surprised to see Nelson begin the season in Durham, in order to make roster space for those pitchers (Hammel, Niemann, and, to an extent, Rodriguez) that are out of options.

The last free agent signee of the off-season was a recent addition - in Brian Shouse. Shouse signed a one year, $1.55 million dollar contact with the option of being retained for the 2010 season. Shouse is 40 years of age (he will be 41 September 26th). He has a career 3.65 ERA (2.81 ERA last season) with a record of 12-9 (5-1 last season). Shouse will fill the void of left-hand specialist for the Rays - a position held last season by Trevor Miller. He will pitch in many different situations, both starting innings and squashing threatening innings. He will be a good fit in the Rays' pen - and is essentially the cloned left-handed version of Chad Bradford - the two combined can easily get 6 quick, easy, ground-ball outs - which is something any team can relish.

So four free agents - at least 3 will make the team from camp - all 4 likely could, but all 4 will be major contributors for the Rays in '09. In my opinion each provides an upgrade from what was already in place, except maybe Nelson, and one could argue the same for Kapler (depending on if you see him as a replacement for Rocco Baldelli or Johnny Gomes).

Shouse is a major upgrade from Trevor Miller of a season ago - where his ERA was hovering in the 4.50 range. Also, Burrell is an upgrade at DH, over the likes of Cliff Floyd - not that I dislike Floyd, but his numbers have declined in resent memory. Kapler, though I don't particularly think is an upgrade over Rocco Baldelli (he would be an upgrade over Gomes on the bench though) is in good shape and should provide, at the very least, health - I do wish Rocco luck in Boston - but wish for the worst for the team. And Nelson, if and when he makes the team, will take over the middle relief role - and by that, I mean the middle innings, and in short term situations giving Balfour and Howell a day off when needed. However, depending on how many relief pitchers the Rays enter the regular season with, I do feel Nelson can be the odd man out - of course, with the injury to Bradford, he may just make the team, at least for now.

The free agents are in. Camp has begun. The season cannot come soon enough. For these Rays, the mantra is '09 > '08 - and for the fans, let's hope that certainly rings true.

The Rays' 25 and 40 Man Roster Predictions

First, the predicted opening day 25-man roster:

Starters:
Catcher: Dioner Navarro
First Baseman: Carlos Pena
Second Baseman: Akinori Iwamura
Third Baseman: Evan Longoria
Short Stop: Jason Bartlett
Left Field: Carl Crawford
Center Field: Bossman Junior Upton
Right Field: Matt Joyce
Designated Hitter: Pat Burrell

Reserves:
Catcher: Shawn Riggans
Utility: Willy Aybar
Utility: Ben Zobrist
OF: Gabe Kapler
OF: Gabe Gross

Starting Pitching:
Scott Kazmir
James Shields
Matt Garza
Andy Sonnanstine
Jason Hammel

Relief Pitching:
Jeff Niemann
Brian Shouse
Grant Balfour
J.P. Howell
Dan Wheeler
Derek Rodriguez

Additional to make up the 40-man roster:

SP David Price
OF Justin Ruggiano
SS Reid Brignac
OF Fernando Perez
RP Juan Salas
CP Troy Percival
RP Chad Bradford
RP Joe Nelson
RP Lance Cormier
2B Eliot Johnson
C John Jaso
SP Wade Davis
SP James Houser
SP Jacob McGee
SP Mitch Talbot

These predictions - especially that of the opening day 25-man roster - are based on a few assumptions that have been written about in previous posts - most notably, the fact that Derek Rodriguez needs to be placed on the 25-man roster to secure their spot on the Rays' 40-man roster as a whole. This is also the reason why I have David Price beginning the season at AAA-Durham which (this link) also explains the reasoning behind Hammel and Niemann being on the 25-man roster (and to an extent Gabe Gross, more to follow below).

As for Percival and Bradford I feel they will both start the season on the DL. Bradford certainly will be on the DL, and I feel, for management reasons, at the very least, Percival will find himself in that same boat due to the roster constraints previously remarked upon.

As for Joe Nelson and Lance Cormier, I feel they will not make the 25-man roster for reasons stated in the previous posts in the links above. I believe Joe Nelson will be a consistent contributor to the Rays this season, but as far as the opening day roster, I don't think he will make it, again, I feel this will be a management decision more so than a baseball decision. If Nelson does begin the season on the opening day roster, it might spell the end of either Hammel, Niemann, or Rodriguez as a Tampa Bay Ray - either that, or it means the pitching staff has suffered another injury during the spring.

I think most of the rest speak for themselves. I think one of the following of Gabe Gross, Matt Joyce, or Gabe Kapler could find themselves beginning on the 40-man roster but not the 25-man roster, which could lead to the end of Gross as a Tampa Bay Ray, as well. As I noted in the previous post surrounding David Price (link above), Gabe Gross is also out of options, and thus, could find his way on the opening day roster as well to ensure his security as a Ray; with that being said, Fernando Perez can easily find his way onto the 25-man roster in place of any one of the other 3-right fielders, but as I have written previously, I believe Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler will platoon the right field duties eventually, leaving Gabe Gross as the odd man out.

Of course, this is all my speculation, but I think, as of right now, this is what I would look to begin the season with. Obviously, over the course of 162 games, things can and will change mightily, which is why having the extra arms and bats that can find themselves claimed by other teams on the 25-man roster makes the most sense, and so for now, I will stand by this roster.

Rays Add Southpaw Specialist

The Rays filled a much needed bullpen position yesterday when they finalized a deal for the services of southpaw specialist Brian Shouse.

Trevor Miller held down the position last season, but he signed with the St. Louis Cardinals this off-season, which paved the way for the Rays to add Shouse.

Shouse expects to be a much needed upgrade. The 40-year old Shouse appeared in 69 games last season for the Milwaukee Brewers where he amounted a record of 5-1 with a 2.81 ERA. He also held left-handed batters to an average of .180.

Shouse turned down arbitration with Milwaukee after making $2 million in 2008. In 422 career appearances, dating back to 1993, where he made his debut with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Shouse has compiled a 12-9 record with a 3.65 ERA.

"We're excited to add Brian to the organization," Rays executive vice president of baseball operations, Andrew Friedman said. "He brings a lot to our bullpen. He's had a tremendous amount of success the last few seasons - especially against left-handers. He generates a lot of ground balls. He doesn't walk guys. He keeps the ball in the park, and we feel like he is going to help diversify our bullpen even more and strengthen it beyond where we were earlier this off-season."

For the Rays, the addition of Shouse and his consistent performance over his career seems to be a step up over what Trevor Miller provided last season where Miller amounted a 4.15 ERA in 68 games - with a career 4.43 ERA in 519 career games.

The past three years, Shouse has amounted 207 games with an ERA of 3.22. Details of the contract were not disclosed, but is expected to include an option for the 2010 season.

Dioner Navarro Loses Arbitration Hearing

Dioner Navarro took his case to arbitration yesterday, but unfortunately for him, the ruling was not favorable.

Navarro was seeking $2.5 million for the 2009 season after making $422,500 in 2008 (including a $10,000 bonus for making the All-Star squad). Meanwhile, the Rays only wanted to pay $2.1 million for Navarro's services for the upcoming season. The arbitrator ruled in favor of the Rays.

"It's never ideal to go to a hearing," Andrew Friedman, the Rays executive vice president of baseball operations, said, "but it is the process in place."

Indeed it is never an ideal situation to not see eye-to-eye with your players and to not be able to find some common ground in contract negotiations, but for baseball, the arbitration system works, and now Navi will report on Saturday with the other pitchers and catchers expected to make about $400,000 less than he had hoped for the season.

Hopefully, for Navarro, he is not discouraged by the loss and can put it behind him and produce even better numbers than last season when he batted .295 with 7 home runs and 54 runs batted in. Navarro was also third in the league in throwing out 35.7 percent of runners attempting to steal (throwing out 25 of 70 attempts).

The loss of the hearing might sting, but Navarro's has a tremendous upside, and in a few years, he might not be missing that extra $400,000, either that, or he can make up for it in upcoming contract negotiations. For now, the Rays defend their arbitration record of having never lost a single hearing in the team's history, and having won all three cases since Friedman became the executive vice president of baseball operations.

Chad Bradford Injured

Chad Bradford had surgery on his right (throwing) elbow last Thursday and likely will be lost to the Rays until at least May.

The submarine pitcher felt discomfort in the arm while going through his off season training program, which resulted in the surgery by Dr. James Andrews in Birmingham, Alabama where "loose bodies were removed" from the right elbow.

Bradford said he had hoped he'd be able to rest the arm and the discomfort would go away, but the more he threw, the stiffer it became and the more swelling he was forced to endure.

"I guess there is a sense of relief in that they found out what was wrong and they fixed it," Bradford said. "Now I just have to wait until rehab is over with and I'll be ready to go again."

The rehab is estimated to take three to four months.

The Rays acquired Bradford last season on August 7th from the Orioles. He made 21 appearances for the Rays and amounted a 1.42 ERA (18 of his outings were scoreless). Over all, last season with the Rays and O's, Bradford amounted 68 games where he posted a 2.12 ERA and a 4-3 record.

With Bradford missing the beginning of the season, the Rays already are opening up roster spots for Jason Hammel, Jeff Niemann, and/or Derek Rodriguez. With Bradford out, look for Rodriguez to be in serious consideration to start the season on the 25-man roster, and thus, the Rule 5 Draft pick will secure his spot with the Rays. Rodriguez will likely fill the void left by Bradford for those first 2 months of the season - since he can be just as efficient at inducing the ground balls.

For the Rays, it's a blow, but could be a blessing in disguise since they now have the added roster spots, and when Bradford returns in May, he will have a fresh arm, and can potentially work additional games and/or innings. Andrew Friedman, the Rays executive vice president of baseball operations had this to say, "focus on the positive, it's going to be a great shot in the arm for us when he is back. And to be able to add that quality of a reliever to the mix at that point."

Mr. Friedman is correct. So this should not be looked at as the Rays losing a great reliever, but as a positive in the long run. Too many good relievers to go around isn't a bad thing, and the Rays have just proved that there can never be a problem of "too many" when it comes to the pitching staff.

Let's hope Rodriguez truly can be as effective as I think he can be - and at least hold the fort down until Bradford's return.